Conference of the Parties COP15

Dear readers,

Today we have an international Children’s day, but additionally on 1st of June 2009 the second UNFCCC meeting starts in Bonn. Will this 12-day event bring any progress for global agreement that should be signed in Copenhagen in December 2009? It depends.

The first UNFCCC meeting was held on 28th March – 8th April and it generally brought a nice atmosphere among parties but nothing new to the negotiations and future results.

Now the situation is different. The UNFCCC published in May 3 documents. One regarding the general approach to the UNFCCC itself and two others related to Kyoto Protocol and among others Kyoto’s flexible mechanisms. It is important to say that this documents were prepared by two separate ad-hoc groups and they will be discussed during the Bonn meeting in June.

However I will focus on the general negotiating text regarding “long-term cooperative action under the convention”.

The purpose of 53-pages negotiation document is to develop measures how governments should conduct an long-term cooperation and commitments to fight climate changes. In addition, it also shows propositions concerning the adaptation and mitigation actions. This document is perceived as a background and basis for the future global agreement decided in December which should also include the Post-Kyoto Protocol.

It should be highlighted that all documents have many gaps and proposition as parties need to discuss and negotiate what should be chosen. So they don’t implicate strict and “one-way” goals and decisions.

The general document suggests some methodologies to establish an overall reduction target for UNFCCC countries. There are some propositions to implement it, amongst others basing on the level of CO2 in the atmosphere, mitigating the average global temperature or reducing the greenhouse gases emissions per capita. The text also presents some preliminary reduction targets for developed countries ranging from “at least 25%” to even “at lest 45%” to 2020 below 1990 levels. The developing countries target ranges from 15% do 30% to 2020 below “business-as-usual” scenario.

The documents suggests also some financing options to support mitigation, adaption and clean technology development activities amongst others spending 0,5-2% of GDP of developed countries or introducing a CO2 tax of 2 $ per tonne.

I hope that Bonn talks will bring some details to this document and that parties will be able to decide on some options and that we will be closer to reach an post-2012 new convention.

Most probably UNFCCC parties will meet for the 3rd time in August. Maybe then all the documents (together with this regarding Kyoto Protocol) will have less options but more coherent solutions. It will definitely help to decide on them (or not) in December.

Regards,
Anthony